ITSC 2025 Paper Abstract

Paper VP-VP.13

Li, Pengshun (University of California, Berkeley), Perez, Claudio (University of California, Berkeley), Wang, Ziqi (University of California, Berkeley), Zhao, Bingyu (Vienna University of Technology), Soga, Kenichi (University of California, Berkeley)

Assessing the Impact of Road Network Disruption on the Transport of Injured Individuals During Earthquakes of Varying Magnitudes

Scheduled for presentation during the Video Session "On-Demand Video Presentations" (VP-VP), Saturday, November 22, 2025, 08:00−18:00, On-Demand Platform

2025 IEEE 28th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), November 18-21, 2025, Gold Coast, Australia

This information is tentative and subject to change. Compiled on April 2, 2026

Keywords Real-time Coordination of Air, Road, and Rail Transport for Incident Management, Real-time Incident Detection and Emergency Management Systems in ITS, AI, Machine Learning and Predictive Analytics for Traffic Incident Detection and Management

Abstract

Earthquakes can disrupt road networks and cause numerous injuries, making timely transport of the injured to hospitals crucial. However, different earthquake magnitudes lead to varying levels of road disruption. Understand how these disruption affect emergency transport is essential. This study develops a framework that integrates building damage (to estimate injury numbers), road network damage (to assess bridge failure), and hospital damage (to evaluate capacity), enabling analysis of transport impacts across earthquake magnitudes. To accelerate the estimation of individuals exceeding specific travel time thresholds, a multi-fidelity Monte Carlo sampling method with control variates is introduce. The framework is applied to earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 6.55 to 7.55 along the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault. Results show that the proposed sampling method is 12 times faster than using high-fidelity simulations alone. As magnitude increases from 6.55 to 7.15, the number of people with travel times over 30 and 40 minutes rises proportionally due to broader impact of earthquakes. However, between magnitudes 7.15 and 7.45, network redundancy maintains travel times. At magnitude 7.55, redundancy breaks down, causing a sharp increase in travel time. The framework and sampling method can be applied to evaluate the impact of road network disruption under any earthquake scenario.