Shao, Yichang (Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications), Zhang, Yuhan (Southeast University), Xu, Yueru (Southeast University), Ye, Zhirui (Southeast University)

Traffic Violation Risk and Policy Response in Commercial Transport: A Spatiotemporal and Causal Analysis

Scheduled for presentation during the Invited Session "S23a-Trustworthy AI for Traffic Sensing and Control" (TH-LM-T23), Thursday, November 20, 2025, 11:30−11:50, Coolangata 2

2025 IEEE 28th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), November 18-21, 2025, Gold Coast, Australia

This information is tentative and subject to change. Compiled on October 18, 2025

Abstract

As traffic violations remain a key contributor to road safety risks, especially within high-exposure sectors such as commercial transport, understanding how regulatory policies shape violation behavior is increasingly important. This study investigates the behavioral impacts of penalty adjustment policies on commercial vehicle traffic violations, focusing on regional enforcement disparities and dynamic risk patterns. Using administrative violation records from 13 cities in Jiangsu Province, China, we first analyze temporal and spatial distributions, revealing concentrated violation periods and city-level differences shaped by road types and freight activity. Clustering based on fine amounts and license penalty points identifies three typical penalty modes and highlights systematic differences between southern and northern Jiangsu. We then apply a difference-in-differences (DID) model to estimate the causal impact of a nationwide penalty reduction policy, finding stronger effects in regions with higher enforcement visibility. Finally, survival analysis shows that the policy extended the interval before repeat violations only in cities with stricter enforcement. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring penalty design and enforcement strategies to regional conditions and operational contexts in the commercial transport sector.