Li, Zhengjiao (Beijing Jiaotong University), Zhao, Zishuo (Beijing Jiaotong University), Liu, Jiang (Beijing Jiaotong University), Cai, Baigen (Beijing Jiaotong University), Lu, Debiao (Beijing Jiaotong University)

Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Railway Balise Based on Wiener Process under Varying Temperature Conditions

Scheduled for presentation during the Poster Session "Railway systems and applications" (ThBT13), Thursday, September 26, 2024, 14:30−16:30, Foyer

2024 IEEE 27th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), September 24- 27, 2024, Edmonton, Canada

This information is tentative and subject to change. Compiled on December 26, 2024

Abstract

The balise transmission system (BTS) plays a vital role in ensuring reliable ground communication of railway traffic. However, due to the natural loss of circuit operation, harsh working environment and high operating frequency, its circuit components gradually degrade and lead to system failure. Combined with the significant influence of varying temperature on the degradation of circuit system, this paper proposes a new method for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of railway balise. Firstly, a Wiener degradation model based on the Arrhenius temperature model is proposed, which can calculate the degradation path curve at different temperatures. Secondly, a model parameter estimation method combining Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm and Kalman filter algorithm is proposed. Then, the probability density function (PDF) of the balise RUL under varying temperature conditions is derived. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by an example. The results show that the proposed prediction method has higher accuracy.